GMP vs listing · 1,251 IPOs · updated 2 Nov 2026
Is IPO GMP accurate? GMP vs actual listing gain
- IPOs compared
- 1,251
- 2 Jan 2023 – 2 Nov 2026
- Direction right
- 77%
- 95% CI 74–79%
- Typical miss
- 7.9 pts
- median · mean 13.9 pts
- Mainboard vs SME
- 83% / 74%
- direction right
AI analysis · 2 Nov 2026
During market corrections, GMP directional accuracy falls to 62.7%, down from the overall 76.8% baseline.
The stock market is currently in a correction, sitting 11% below its 52-week high within the 10% to 20% correction range. Meanwhile, the IPO market remains in a normal state, with the last 30 listings averaging an 11.6% gain. Historically, GMP directional accuracy drops to 62.7% during market corrections compared to 76.8% across all 1,251 IPOs.
Among open issues, Bombay Coated & Special Steels has an 11% GMP; historically, 65 mainboard IPOs in the 10–20% band had a median listing gain of 12.7%, a 10th-90th percentile range of 0% to 23.5%, and 87.7% listed above issue price. SME issue Maxwell Engineering Solutions has a 44.3% GMP, where 82 past peers in the 30–50% band delivered a median gain of 39.1%, a range of 10.2% to 89.6%, and 95.1% positive listings. For Antala Industries with a 0% GMP, 258 past SME IPOs with zero or negative GMP had a median listing gain of 0%, a range of -20% to 8.9%, and 44.2% listing above issue price. These figures are purely historical records and not a forecast.
Investors should keep in mind that GMP tracking error is larger on the SME board, where the median miss is 9.9 points compared to 5.3 points for mainboard offerings. In addition, post-listing performance often deteriorates over time, with 52% of all tracked IPOs currently trading below their issue price.
Written by AI (gemini-3.8-flash) from the figures on this page; every number is checked against them before it is published. History, not a forecast, and not investment advice.
Stock market now
Correction
Nifty 50 closed at 23,440.8 on 2 Nov 2026, 11.0% below its 52-week high of 26,328.55 (2 Jan 2026). Bull = within 10% of the high, correction = 10–20% below, bear market = 20% or more below.
GMP pointed the right way 63% of the time in these conditions (95% CI 56–69%, 201 IPOs), vs 77% overall.
IPO market now
normal IPO market
The last 30 IPOs listed at +11.58% on average. Hot = last 30 listings averaged +30% or more, cold = under +10%.
GMP pointed the right way 75% of the time in a normal IPO market (95% CI 71–78%, 558 IPOs).
IPOs now: listing gains of past IPOs with the same GMP
Listing gains of past IPOs in the same GMP band on the same board (all boards when fewer than 20). History, not a forecast.
| IPO | GMP now | Past IPOs | Median listing | Middle 80% | Listed up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxwell Engineering Solutions IPOSME · open | +₹70 (+44.30%) | 82 SME | +39.09% | +10.24% to +89.58% | 95% |
| HGS (India) IPOSME · open | +₹30 (+25.00%) | 52 SME | +22.74% | +0.14% to +51.72% | 88% |
| Vedant Poly Fabs IPOSME · open | +₹15 (+15.96%) | 93 SME | +11.73% | 0.00% to +36.88% | 82% |
| Johnsoncab Electricals IPOSME · open | +₹7.5 (+3.75%) | 98 SME | 0.00% | −14.08% to +9.68% | 45% |
| Vectras Enprocon IPOSME · open | ₹0 (0.00%) | 258 SME | 0.00% | −20.00% to +8.89% | 44% |
| BLS Polymers IPOMainboard · closed | +₹67 (+44.67%) | 62 Mainboard | +37.06% | +21.16% to +63.02% | 100% |
| Bombay Coated & Special Steels IPOMainboard · closed | +₹8.5 (+10.37%) | 65 Mainboard | +12.65% | 0.00% to +23.52% | 88% |
| Carver Roboweld IPOSME · closed | +₹5 (+6.25%) | 92 SME | +5.14% | −9.40% to +18.99% | 70% |
| SFC Environmental Technologies IPOMainboard · closed | +₹16.5 (+5.00%) | 70 Mainboard | +1.14% | −5.51% to +8.15% | 57% |
| M.K. Sons Fine Jewels IPOMainboard · closed | +₹5 (+3.09%) | 70 Mainboard | +1.14% | −5.51% to +8.15% | 57% |
| Ajwa Projects IPOSME · closed | +₹1 (+0.49%) | 98 SME | 0.00% | −14.08% to +9.68% | 45% |
| Antala Industries IPOSME · closed | ₹0 (0.00%) | 258 SME | 0.00% | −20.00% to +8.89% | 44% |
| Wiscon Industries IPOSME · closed | ₹0 (0.00%) | 258 SME | 0.00% | −20.00% to +8.89% | 44% |
Hover a dot for the IPO. Dots above the dashed line listed higher than GMP implied; below it, lower. The row of SME dots at +90% is the exchanges' 90% cap on an SME listing price. 60 IPOs beyond the axes are pinned to the edge. The table below has the same data.
IPO GMP accuracy by stock market
Nifty 50 vs its 52-week high at listing.| Group | IPOs | Avg GMP | Avg listing | Direction (95% CI) | Median miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull (Nifty within 10% of its 52-week high) | 1050 | +29.23% | +28.28% | 80% (77–82) | 8.4 pts |
| Correction (Nifty 10–20% below its high) | 201 | +13.52% | +11.25% | 63% (56–69) | 5.6 pts |
| Bear market (Nifty 20%+ below its high) | 0 | — | — | — | — |
IPO GMP accuracy by IPO market
Average gain of the previous 30 listings.| Group | IPOs | Avg GMP | Avg listing | Direction (95% CI) | Median miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot IPO market (last 30 listed ≥ +30%) | 418 | +48.18% | +46.20% | 87% (83–90) | 12.4 pts |
| Normal IPO market | 558 | +18.74% | +17.66% | 75% (71–78) | 6.1 pts |
| Cold IPO market (last 30 listed < +10%) | 265 | +9.81% | +8.93% | 65% (59–71) | 7.0 pts |
Nifty did not fall 20% below its 52-week high at any point in this period, so there is no bear-market sample yet.
IPO listing gain by GMP level
Median listing gain and the middle 80% (10th–90th percentile) of every listed IPO in each band, by board.
| Last GMP | Mainboard | SME | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPOs | Median | Middle 80% | IPOs | Median | Middle 80% | |
| zero or negative | 65 | −3.65% | −13.17% to +2.96% | 258 | 0.00% | −20.00% to +8.89% |
| 0–5% | 70 | +1.14% | −5.51% to +8.15% | 98 | 0.00% | −14.08% to +9.68% |
| 5–10% | 40 | +4.34% | −0.06% to +10.60% | 92 | +5.14% | −9.40% to +18.99% |
| 10–20% | 65 | +12.65% | 0.00% to +23.52% | 93 | +11.73% | 0.00% to +36.88% |
| 20–30% | 35 | +20.09% | +3.85% to +31.52% | 52 | +22.74% | +0.14% to +51.72% |
| 30–50% | 62 | +37.06% | +21.16% to +63.02% | 82 | +39.09% | +10.24% to +89.58% |
| 50% or more | 34 | +76.19% | +41.91% to +124.15% | 205 | +90.00% | +34.07% to +162.84% |
IPO GMP accuracy by period
By listing date.| Group | IPOs | Avg GMP | Avg listing | Direction (95% CI) | Median miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 days | 43 | +11.67% | +9.98% | 67% (53–80) | 5.3 pts |
| Last 90 days | 154 | +16.36% | +15.93% | 69% (61–76) | 4.3 pts |
| Last 180 days | 226 | +15.95% | +15.26% | 73% (66–78) | 4.8 pts |
| Last 365 days | 369 | +13.57% | +11.87% | 72% (68–77) | 5.3 pts |
| 2026 | 296 | +13.57% | +12.35% | 73% (67–77) | 4.9 pts |
| 2025 | 376 | +13.91% | +10.43% | 70% (65–74) | 6.8 pts |
| 2024 | 340 | +50.25% | +48.98% | 86% (81–89) | 12.7 pts |
| 2023 | 239 | +29.59% | +32.32% | 80% (75–85) | 8.1 pts |
IPO GMP accuracy by GMP level
Last GMP as % of the issue price.| Group | IPOs | Avg GMP | Avg listing | Direction (95% CI) | Median miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMP 20% or more | 473 | +63.43% | +63.09% | 97% (95–98) | 15.5 pts |
| GMP 10–20% | 160 | +14.49% | +13.80% | 84% (77–89) | 7.5 pts |
| GMP 5–10% | 130 | +7.29% | +5.55% | 70% (62–77) | 6.2 pts |
| GMP 0–5% | 165 | +2.43% | +1.50% | 50% (43–58) | 3.2 pts |
| GMP zero or negative | 323 | −0.81% | −3.30% | 61% (55–66) | 5.1 pts |
GMP accuracy: mainboard vs SME IPOs
| Group | IPOs | Avg GMP | Avg listing | Direction (95% CI) | Median miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainboard | 371 | +19.46% | +17.69% | 83% (79–86) | 5.3 pts |
| SME | 880 | +29.76% | +28.85% | 74% (71–77) | 9.9 pts |
IPO GMP accuracy by subscription
Overall times subscribed.| Group | IPOs | Avg GMP | Avg listing | Direction (95% CI) | Median miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 10× | 474 | +2.06% | +0.44% | 62% (57–66) | 4.3 pts |
| 10–50× | 226 | +11.99% | +11.02% | 73% (66–78) | 7.2 pts |
| 50–200× | 338 | +35.57% | +33.18% | 88% (84–91) | 10.3 pts |
| 200× or more | 213 | +83.08% | +84.70% | 97% (93–98) | 20.2 pts |
How far listing gains land from GMP
| Miss | IPOs | Share | Above / below GMP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Within ±2 pts | 245 | 20% | 109 / 92 |
| ±2–5 pts | 216 | 17% | 110 / 106 |
| ±5–10 pts | 259 | 21% | 115 / 144 |
| ±10–25 pts | 347 | 28% | 116 / 231 |
| More than 25 pts | 184 | 15% | 84 / 100 |
After listing: do IPO listing gains hold?
- At listing price
- +25.56%
- Listing-day close
- +27.21%
- Latest price
- +45.21%
Average gain over the issue price across 1,250 IPOs. 58% closed listing day above their listing price; of the IPOs that listed up, 56% still trade above the issue price, and 52% of all IPOs are now below it. Latest prices as of 2 Nov 2026.
Biggest GMP misses
| IPO | Listed | Issue | Last GMP | GMP % | Listing | Day close | Now | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kay Cee Energy InfraSME | 5 Jan 24 | ₹54 | +₹90 | +166.67% | +366.67% | +343.33% | +34.63% | +200.0 pts ✓ |
| Sungarner EnergiesSME | 31 Aug 23 | ₹83 | +₹45 | +54.22% | +201.20% | +216.08% | +200.36% | +147.0 pts ✓ |
| Goyal SaltSME | 11 Oct 23 | ₹38 | +₹39 | +102.63% | +242.11% | +258.16% | +150.26% | +139.5 pts ✓ |
| Divine PowerSME | 2 Jul 24 | ₹40 | +₹61 | +152.50% | +287.50% | +280.75% | +1345.88% | +135.0 pts ✓ |
| Esconet TechnologiesSME | 23 Feb 24 | ₹84 | +₹100 | +119.05% | +245.24% | +227.98% | +336.90% | +126.2 pts ✓ |
| Winsol EngineersSME | 14 May 24 | ₹75 | +₹199 | +265.33% | +386.67% | +411.00% | +36.00% | +121.3 pts ✓ |
| GPES SolarSME | 24 Jun 24 | ₹94 | +₹181 | +192.55% | +298.94% | +318.88% | +300.16% | +106.4 pts ✓ |
| Nephro Care IndiaSME | 5 Jul 24 | ₹90 | +₹175 | +194.44% | +90.00% | +99.50% | −9.67% | −104.4 pts ✓ |
Latest IPOs: last GMP vs listing gain
| IPO | Listed | Issue | Last GMP | GMP % | Listing | Day close | Now | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAAA India AlternativesMainboard | 2 Nov 26 | ₹1,665 | +₹54 | +3.24% | +0.63% | — | 0.00% | −2.6 pts ✓ |
| Core4 EngineersSME | 30 Oct 26 | ₹93 | ₹0 | 0.00% | −20.00% | −16.00% | −16.00% | −20.0 pts ✓ |
| Jio PlatformsMainboard | 28 Oct 26 | ₹1,119 | +₹250 | +22.34% | +21.36% | +26.68% | +27.91% | −1.0 pts ✓ |
| Paras HealthcareMainboard | 28 Oct 26 | ₹693 | +₹13 | +1.88% | +3.90% | +6.37% | +6.87% | +2.0 pts ✓ |
| Shellz IndiaSME | 23 Oct 26 | ₹179 | +₹7 | +3.91% | 0.00% | −5.00% | −2.35% | −3.9 pts ✗ |
| Bonfiglioli TransmissionsMainboard | 23 Oct 26 | ₹586 | +₹66 | +11.26% | 0.00% | −1.65% | +6.69% | −11.3 pts ✗ |
| Sahajanand Medical TechnologiesMainboard | 23 Oct 26 | ₹344 | +₹17 | +4.94% | +7.89% | +9.94% | +34.51% | +2.9 pts ✓ |
| Tonbo Imaging IndiaMainboard | 23 Oct 26 | ₹700 | +₹452 | +64.57% | +65.71% | +61.97% | +86.34% | +1.1 pts ✓ |
| ZetwerkMainboard | 23 Oct 26 | ₹151 | +₹1.2 | +0.79% | +5.46% | −8.41% | +7.97% | +4.7 pts ✓ |
| Fusion CXMainboard | 22 Oct 26 | ₹289 | +₹13.5 | +4.67% | +5.54% | +0.26% | −3.25% | +0.9 pts ✓ |
| Ravita Engineering ServicesSME | 22 Oct 26 | ₹112 | +₹1 | +0.89% | 0.00% | +1.52% | −5.67% | −0.9 pts ✗ |
| Vaibhav VyapaarSME | 21 Oct 26 | ₹54 | +₹3 | +5.56% | −2.04% | −1.76% | +3.89% | −7.6 pts ✗ |
| HD Fire ProtectMainboard | 21 Oct 26 | ₹271 | +₹70 | +25.83% | +23.62% | +13.36% | −1.61% | −2.2 pts ✓ |
| R.K.Fashion AccessoriesSME | 12 Oct 26 | ₹82 | +₹1.5 | +1.83% | −2.44% | −7.32% | −64.51% | −4.3 pts ✗ |
| TNA SolutionsSME | 9 Oct 26 | ₹70 | ₹0 | 0.00% | −20.00% | −16.00% | −41.94% | −20.0 pts ✓ |
| Acme India IndustriesSME | 9 Oct 26 | ₹196 | +₹43 | +21.94% | +12.76% | +18.39% | −13.95% | −9.2 pts ✓ |
| Paramount SyntexSME | 9 Oct 26 | ₹127 | ₹0 | 0.00% | −9.45% | −13.98% | −57.09% | −9.4 pts ✓ |
| Omara Ventures IndiaSME | 8 Oct 26 | ₹311 | ₹0 | 0.00% | +2.57% | +2.59% | +5.14% | +2.6 pts ✗ |
| EventionsSME | 8 Oct 26 | ₹118 | ₹0 | 0.00% | −5.93% | −10.64% | −52.29% | −5.9 pts ✓ |
| SJP UltrasonicSME | 8 Oct 26 | ₹67 | ₹0 | 0.00% | +10.75% | +8.97% | +50.51% | +10.8 pts ✗ |
| Dove SoftSME | 8 Oct 26 | ₹111 | ₹0 | 0.00% | −0.63% | −5.59% | −15.41% | −0.6 pts ✓ |
| EverestIMS TechnologiesSME | 8 Oct 26 | ₹85 | +₹50 | +58.82% | +48.24% | +40.82% | +2.65% | −10.6 pts ✓ |
| Vishal NirmitiMainboard | 8 Oct 26 | ₹220 | +₹2 | +0.91% | −2.27% | −7.16% | −52.67% | −3.2 pts ✗ |
| Nityas Gems & JewelleryMainboard | 8 Oct 26 | ₹75 | +₹1 | +1.33% | +6.67% | +12.20% | −12.73% | +5.3 pts ✓ |
| Shree TNB PolymersSME | 8 Oct 26 | ₹53 | +₹4 | +7.55% | +13.21% | +7.55% | +0.66% | +5.7 pts ✓ |
| Sollfege Smart ElectronicsSME | 8 Oct 26 | ₹55 | +₹10 | +18.18% | +89.82% | +80.33% | −1.82% | +71.6 pts ✓ |
| Green Asia ImpexSME | 7 Oct 26 | ₹89 | ₹0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −5.00% | −24.66% | +0.0 pts ✓ |
| Papadmalji Agro FoodsSME | 7 Oct 26 | ₹72 | ₹0 | 0.00% | +0.42% | −4.51% | −37.92% | +0.4 pts ✗ |
| Black Opal ConsultantsSME | 7 Oct 26 | ₹197 | ₹0 | 0.00% | +1.52% | +4.72% | −31.47% | +1.5 pts ✗ |
| Vans ElectroengineeringsSME | 7 Oct 26 | ₹118 | +₹103 | +87.29% | +90.00% | +99.49% | +250.85% | +2.7 pts ✓ |
Latest 30 of 1,251 IPOs shown; every figure above uses all of them.
Method and sources
GMP % = last grey market premium before listing ÷ issue price. Listing gain = listing price ÷ issue price − 1; listing-day close and latest gain likewise. A hit means GMP and the listing pointed the same way; the miss is listing gain minus GMP %, in percentage points.
17 IPOs were tracked by IPO Radar itself, using its median of three public GMP trackers. The other 1,234 come from a public IPO tracker's archive of the last GMP before listing and the listing prices, read 2 Nov 2026 and refreshed daily for the current year. GMP is unofficial; SEBI does not recognise grey-market trades. Past accuracy does not predict the next listing.
IPO GMP accuracy: questions
Is IPO GMP accurate?
As a direction signal, mostly: across 1,251 Indian IPOs since 2 Jan 2023, the last GMP before listing matched the direction of the listing 77% of the time. As a price forecast, no: the typical miss was 7.9 pts (median), and only 37% of listings landed within ±5 points of the GMP-implied gain.
Is GMP more accurate for mainboard or SME IPOs?
Mainboard: 371 IPOs, 83% direction right, median miss 5.3 pts. SME: 880 IPOs, 74% direction right, median miss 9.9 pts.
Do IPO listing gains last?
Across 1,250 listed IPOs, the average gain was +25.56% at the listing price, +27.21% at the listing-day close and +45.21% at the latest price. 52% now trade below their issue price.
How is GMP accuracy calculated?
GMP % is the last grey market premium recorded before listing divided by the issue price. Listing gain is the listing price over the issue price. A hit means both point the same way (GMP up and listed up, or GMP flat/negative and listed flat/down). The miss is listing gain minus GMP %, in percentage points.